Discovering MENA and other thoughts

"This counter-terrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist, using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground. This strategy [...] is consistent with the approach I outlined earlier this year: to use force against anyone who threatens America’s core interests, but to mobilize partners wherever possible to address broader challenges to international order," Barack Obama said during a 15-minute intervention broadcast live on major American television networks on September 10th. 

Tracking the events in Iraq - in the whole region, actually - might be a colossal task. Particularly so during the Summer, when it is sometimes even difficult to grasp a single headline. We all are aware about something called ISIS - or IS, as of lately - that seems to be messing around from Lebanon to Iran. A group of bearded man that scares everybody, the only ones able to force Obama to reconsider his mantra of non-intervention and to make Assad look like a harmless puppy. We've read about them, we've seen tons of maps showing their advance, we've heard rumours and conjectures. In case you've missed half of it, there go a few basic things you need to know about them. And yes, they are creepy!

Syria officially opened its presidential campaign on Sunday May 11th, and the cities and towns under the regime's control are filled with billboards and posters presenting portraits of President Bashar Al-Assad. Others, such as the ones hung in Thawra Street in the center of the capital, show either his portrait dressed in a grey suit and blue shirt or the Syrian flag overlaid with the word "together" and the President's signature. In Damascu's Sabaa Bahrat neighbourhood, one billboard proclaims: "We won't close our eyes until we have said yes to the ophthalmologist" - Assad is an eye specialist by training - "We vote for you, 2014". Elsewhere, posters read "our Bashar, we will not accept a president other than you. We have chosen you, you have our loyalty". The campaign is also flooding online media with messages of support for Assad - by the first morning, the Facebook account had garnered 65,000 likes and the Twit...

Sometimes, it seems as though the only factors which contribute to sketch the future of the Middle East, most of them I laid out in this article , are out of the control of the citizens: sectarianism, repression, foreign intervention, coups (or non-coups)... However, and even though democracy may (still) not be seen as the key strength of the region, several elections are taking place in many of its countries. Concretely eight, nothing less, and in what many consider key countries that do have a say in regional - and often international - issues. This is why, although many may feel tempted to dismiss those events as procedural or even cosmetic moves, we all should take a closer look at the previous steps and the outcome of these votes.

Women are not only half of a society but its mainstay. They bear its children and they raise its generations. Together with Tunisia, Syria was one of the countries in which women were allowed a limited margin of freedom and benefited from a more advanced social status than their brethren throughout the Arab world. One example was the wife of Bashar Al-Assad, known worldwide for her stylish and elegant attitude, a symbol of the will of the regime to appear as a civil and secular state. Their situation was, of course, far from what Western women are familiar with, as most of them were subject to the tyranny of a culture dominated by men. The civil war represented however a turning point in this evolution. And, when violence broke out in Syria, women were the first victims, seeing themselves subject to the whims of extremists both in the rebel-side and in the regime. 

Talking about politics in Lebanon is always tantamount to wondering about the status of Hezbollah (meaning "Party of God"). Hezbollah is, at the same time, as The Economist likes to call it, a party-cum-militia, created within the Shia community and funded by Iran during the country's civil war - in 1982 - with the main aim of offer resistance (muqawama) to the state's self declared biggest enemy that had just (taking advantage of the ongoing chaos) invaded the country: Israel. Its paramilitary wing is still regarded as a resistance movement throughout much of the Arab and Muslim worlds. Several countries and organizations in the West and elsewhere (U.S., Netherlands, France, Gulf Cooperation Council, U.K., Australia, Canada, the European Union ) classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, be it in whole or in part.

The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the one and only body considered as representative of the Syrian opposition by the international community (despite its lacklustre state and its problems with the rebels on the ground, many of them having refused to recognise its authority and rejecting the idea of negotiations) has agreed to participate in peace talks with the regime that will take place in Geneva, what pundits like to call "Geneva 2 talks". The helter-skelter body has however outlined certain conditions for its attendance that will need to prove the Syrian regime's goodwill and predisposition, particularly a guarantee that relief agencies would be given access to deliver humanitarian assistance and that political prisoners would be released. In this sense, many considered as a very good omen a deal whereby a blockade on the rebel-held town of Qudsaya, near Damascus, will be eased.

This week's Economist publishes an enlightening article drawing, amongst other things, parallels between the Lebanese and the Syrian civil wars. I would stress a sentence that I believe sums it all up perfectly: "Lebanon could not be conquered by one side, nor divided among all. Its people are too mixed".

One of the unforeseen consequences of the much bragged about Russia & U.S. backed deal on Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction has been casting light on one key stakeholder which nonetheless was trying to remain on the sidelines as of lately, Israel. Indeed, Assad´s regime immediate reaction after relinquishing and accepting to give up its weapons (and therefore admitting their being in possession of them) was to point its finger to the eternal usual suspect when it comes to WMD in the region. A suspicion that might have been clarified by a 1983 C.I.A. paper that has been recently declassified whereby the Hebrew state has for decades amassed this kind of arms. Israel has however always acted with ambiguity and never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, even though many amongst its authorities have hinted they have the right to assemble and stock them in order to defend themselves (and by themselves, without having to call for outside intervention) from all these danger...

While  two weeks ago  Western intervention in Syria seemed imminent , today it merely stands as the second track  after the  diplomatic option both the US, Russia and Syria have embraced . This situation has lead many, including me, to draw parallels that somehow justify or refute the usefulness of an attack on the Syrian regime, the most likely comparisons being drawn with Iraq, Libya and Kosovo.  I hereby point out the major differences that make such comparisons unfeasible and even dangerous. 

I found a good article underlining why Syria's situation is not the same as the one in Kosovo back in 1999 whereby "apples are being compared not to oranges but to cobras". In view of these arguments, do you think intervention might be still justifiable?

"Not anymore: a story of Revolution"

Even though the news about the Syrian government having already submitted the paperwork to join the Chemical Weapons Convention, the treaty may be ill-suited to deal with the situation on the ground in Syria, raising the possibility that President Bashar al-Assad could manage to retain his chemical weapons stocks. More on it here .

Everything suggested an American attack was imminent ... until Putin and his five-star Foreign Minister made magic and amazed us all by buying Assad a little more time. While never-ending debates about intervention were still invading the media and after the UK Parliament threw a bucket of cold water on the idea of a Libya-style Western-led operation, President Obama decided the US congress would have the last word on any eventual attack. It appeared the Republicans supported this move and, even though a vote has not still been cast, it seemed only the moment and exact target were still to be decided.

Via The Arabist, in turn via WINEP

It seems a  US  strike on  Syria  is now imminent. Presumably without the backing of a United Nations Security Council resolution. Apparently, Assad has trespassed the red line President Obama spoke about a year ago. As if more than 100,000 deaths and nearly 2 million refugees were not convincing enough a reason. A horrifying attack with chemical weapons on the  Damascus  suburb of Ghouta that allegedly left behind more than 1,000 dead has set itself up as the most probable turning point of a conflict that has already ravaged the country and the whole region for more than two years. 

Enlightening article : The chemical attack on a Damascus suburb while UN inspectors were in the country This attack is the only reason why all eyes are again on Syria, Where were they before? On Egypt, the actual core of the Arab world. What happens there might affect the rest of the region. Increasing weight of extremism in both sides, making it much more harder to even imagine an end to the conflict. The article talks about attacks in Latakia (the fief of Assad's regime). I would rather speak about the current situation in Lebanon. The Kurdish factor . That's when inshallah recovers its meaning.

Tamarrud (rebel yourself in Arabic), Egypt's most famous protest movement , the one that sparked the 30 June huge demonstrations that ultimately ousted Mohammed Morsi, has inspired several copycats in brethren countries. Which ones? The ones who already went through their (successful or not) "Arab Springs".

You know I'm not the pessimistic kind of person, but the opposite. Nonetheless, every time I take a glance at what is happening in Syria, I am increasingly disheartened. For months the conflict has been dragging on, with hundreds killed each day and thousands fleeing towards neighboring countries (or worse still, returning to Syria out of desperation at the sight of the outrageous conditions the gigantic refugee camps put them in). Let's not forget about the xenophobic feeling towards Syrians citizens that is mounting throughout the region, particularly in Lebanon and Jordan, tiny countries truly incapable of giving shelter and providing staples to the ravaged families that get to their countries. Xenophobia out of sectarian hatred, xenophobia out of fear of spillover, xenophobic out of anger at what they consider is putting stability of the whole region under threat. People talk about a lost generation in Europe. Try figuring the future of a generation whose children cannot g...