Discovering MENA and other thoughts

Tracking the events in Iraq - in the whole region, actually - might be a colossal task. Particularly so during the Summer, when it is sometimes even difficult to grasp a single headline. We all are aware about something called ISIS - or IS, as of lately - that seems to be messing around from Lebanon to Iran. A group of bearded man that scares everybody, the only ones able to force Obama to reconsider his mantra of non-intervention and to make Assad look like a harmless puppy. We've read about them, we've seen tons of maps showing their advance, we've heard rumours and conjectures. In case you've missed half of it, there go a few basic things you need to know about them. And yes, they are creepy!

Sometimes, it seems as though the only factors which contribute to sketch the future of the Middle East, most of them I laid out in this article , are out of the control of the citizens: sectarianism, repression, foreign intervention, coups (or non-coups)... However, and even though democracy may (still) not be seen as the key strength of the region, several elections are taking place in many of its countries. Concretely eight, nothing less, and in what many consider key countries that do have a say in regional - and often international - issues. This is why, although many may feel tempted to dismiss those events as procedural or even cosmetic moves, we all should take a closer look at the previous steps and the outcome of these votes.

While  two weeks ago  Western intervention in Syria seemed imminent , today it merely stands as the second track  after the  diplomatic option both the US, Russia and Syria have embraced . This situation has lead many, including me, to draw parallels that somehow justify or refute the usefulness of an attack on the Syrian regime, the most likely comparisons being drawn with Iraq, Libya and Kosovo.  I hereby point out the major differences that make such comparisons unfeasible and even dangerous. 

It seems the Iraqi Supreme Court  struck down  a measure imposing term limits on the prime minister, clearing the way for Nouri al-Maliki to seek a third term.  Good news for democracy and stability (sigh)!

I was about to write an article on April 20 Iraq´s local elections, the country´s first vote since US troops left for good in December 2011, when I read that small bombs had exploded and mortar shells had been fired at several polling stations. During the weeks, and even months, prior to what some considered a test before the Parliamentary Elections of 2014, the campaign was marked by an escalation of violence and fourteen candidates, most of them Sunnis, were killed. I already spoke about the resumption of tensions between the Shiite communities of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, the Sunni minority and the Kurdish population. Apparently, this was just the start, as the country seems set for a new civil war. The last sectarian war took place in 2006 and 2007, and left tens of thousands of people dead.

Throughout the week, a lot has been said about Israel attacking Syria. The news was about Israel carrying out airstrikes in and around Damascus, targeting missiles Iran intended to smuggle into Lebanon through Syrian soil. The final addressee was Hezbollah, which would in turn have later used this "game-changing" weapons to attack Israel. Even though Israel did not confirm the military move at the beginning (the first information came from US intelligence sources), many officials (including an Israeli ambassador acting as guest speaker in a conference on the Southern Mediterranean I had the honour to attend) have commented on it, affirming that Israel is not looking forward to intervening in Syria, but has drawn its particular "red line", that is, Iran providing the Shiite militia with powerful arms that will put in danger both the stability in the region and Israeli citizens' safety. As a matter of fact, and in anticipation to some kind of counter-attack, I...

For months, the Syrian opposition has been accusing Hezbollah of waging a war against the Syrian people. Reports increasingly acknowledge the presence of Lebanese fighters, fighting alongside Assad´s army, on Syrian soil, namely in Shiite villages along the border between Syria and Lebanon. Even though the extent of the implication of Shiite group in Syria cannot be verified, it was clear the cum-militia had, in some measure, blood in their hands. This was confirmed when, in a televised speech, the leader of the Lebanese organization, Hassan Nasrallah, said they are ready to protect the Syrian regime. Nasrallah affirmed Syria has true friends in the region and the world that won't permit Syria to "fall in the hands of America, Israel, and Takfiris [jihadist group linked to Al Qaeda]". He added that members of Hezbollah were "providing appropriate aid" to Syrian government forces. He however denied Iranian forces are deployed in Syria, although he acknowledged ...

Anyone out there unaware of Assad's latest mischief? Really? Well, on the occasion of Syria's  Independence Day , the country's stiff President gave an interview to the Syrian official television channel Al-Ikhbariya. The interview coincided with the country's Independence Day, and at one point of the ranting he linked his departure to a "decision of the people". Was he maybe suggesting there might be a presidential election, in which he will beyond doubt be the front runner, in 2014? He then paradoxically added that his post is of no value without the support of the people. Which people exactly?  Assad's speech was full with pearls of wisdom, notably the one about the West being trying to colonize his country and thus playing with fire as a result of its funding Al-Qaeda operations. He somewhat threatened the West saying it will pay dearly one day or the other, for this organization would turn against them in the future,  striking "in the hear...

On the occasion of the start of the Kurdish new year and before hundred of thousands of feverish supporters, imprisoned PKK (Kurdistan Worker Party, branded by many countries as terrorist organization) leader, Abdullah Ocalan, surprised many by announcing last week both a ceasefire and the withdrawal of all the group's forces (experts reckon they amount to more than 3,000) from Turkey, in what some consider the culmination of years-long efforts from both sides to put an end to a decades-long bloody conflict that has left behind more than 40,000 deaths (a vast majority of them Kurdish), as well as thousands of ravaged families. With this declaration, the group meets one of the conditions PM Erdogan has repeatedly established to set off formal negotiation talks. A similar process was put into motion in 1999, following the capture of Ocalan by Turkish forces, but failed and, as a result, the Turkish army severely attacked the group. The second failed effort reached the 2010 "Os...

In what many consider the most serious spillover of the Syrian conflict into a neighbouring country (others grant that honour to the car explosion that took place in Beirut last year ), approximately 40 Syrian soldiers who were escaping from rebel attacks and crossed the border with Iraq and were accompanied by Iraqi soldiers were killed by unidentified gunmen (some blame Al-Qaeda, there's no evidence to that) in the Iraqi province of Anbar (a Western territory with, coincidentally, a Sunni majority and also epicenter of the recent unrest ). Even though the authorities claim they've not picked sides, Prime Minister's Maliki's covert support of Assad's regime has been denounced by several observers. You simply cannot back a dictator who has already massacred more than 70,000 people, wounded much more and chased away hundreds of thousands, even if you act out of strategic reckoning, and expect your population to stay quiet.

A brilliant explanation about what is actually happening in Iraq : "On the left, where one would expect it, is “Irak [sic] Arabi,” between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.  But, if you look to the left, south of Teheran, you will see “Irak Ajemi” right in the centre of modern Iran.  In the middle is Arabistan, the Arab region of Iran the British have been trying to destabilise.  So what gives?  Even in those times, the two Iraqs were parts of different nations, Arabi under the Ottoman Turks and Ajemi in Persia.  The one thing the two places have in common are the holy Shi’ite cities in or around them: Arabi has Najaf, Samarra and Karbela (Karbala) and Ajemi Kum (Qom.) The purpose of showing this map is to illustrate the basic truth about modern Iraq: it is an artificial creation, one concocted by the British after World War I.  With the Sunni and Shi’ite Arabs, the Kurds, the Assyrians and all of the other groups, real nationhood as understood in...

Since 2003, Iraq has been regularly, though mildly, appearing in the news every other week. Stability has not taken hold in the country, sunk into sectarian violence, misery and civilian dissent over the last years and even decades, constantly on the brink of civil war. What is exactly happening nowadays, and how can it be linked to the country's recent history? Over the last weeks, thousands of protests, including strikes and sit-in, have taken place in Sunni-dominated areas, notably north and west of Baghdad, calling for the satisfaction of mainly two demands: the release of hundreds, if not thousands, of prisoners charged with terrorism by virtue of Laws adopted under the umbrella of the "war on terror" but according to many, arrested out of sectarian animosities (most of them have been freed this week-end, the authorities having admitted that some of them were arrested "unlawfully" though blaming bureaucrats for this) and the resignation of the Shiite ...