Discovering MENA and other thoughts

Hace tres meses Binyamin Netanyahu intentó convocar elecciones legislativas anticipadas, henchido de orgullo por  la ‘Ley Nacional’ que pretendía ver aprobada  y convencido de que sus ciudadanos reconocerían los esfuerzos que el Primer Ministro estaba llevando a cabo en pos de su bienestar y paz futuros, libres de árabes e incluso palestinos incómodos. Hoy por hoy, Bibi no parece tan satisfecho ni confiado. Las últimas encuestas sugieren que Isaac Herzog, líder del partido laborista -hoy mas al centro que a la izquierda del espectro político- en la alianza llamada ‘Unión Sionista’ con Tzipi Livni, está tomando un enorme impulso. A pesar de ello, también nos informan de que una quinta parte de los votantes se declaran aún indecisos.  Algo en lo que coinciden sondeos y expertos es que cada vez más israelíes se declaran partidarios del ‘cualquiera antes que Bibi’.

One of the unforeseen consequences of the much bragged about Russia & U.S. backed deal on Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction has been casting light on one key stakeholder which nonetheless was trying to remain on the sidelines as of lately, Israel. Indeed, Assad´s regime immediate reaction after relinquishing and accepting to give up its weapons (and therefore admitting their being in possession of them) was to point its finger to the eternal usual suspect when it comes to WMD in the region. A suspicion that might have been clarified by a 1983 C.I.A. paper that has been recently declassified whereby the Hebrew state has for decades amassed this kind of arms. Israel has however always acted with ambiguity and never acknowledged having nuclear weapons, even though many amongst its authorities have hinted they have the right to assemble and stock them in order to defend themselves (and by themselves, without having to call for outside intervention) from all these danger...

Apparently, China is hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas for separate talks, showing a desire for a greater role in the region. The two leaders are due in Shanghai but will not coincide, as Netanyahu is due there on Wednesday, following Abbas’ departure a day earlier. China was looking forward to being able to organize an encounter and therefore to set up a meeting if the two men wanted. But understandably neither of them did. Even though the "Empire of the Centre" has traditionally maintained a low profile in the region, it has tried in recent years to play a more active role. Its diplomatic efforts were principally directed towards the economic sector, as well as to the quest for strategical resources, namely oil and gas. But, as of lately, China has also shown greater interest in playing a certain role in the political arena. The latter intention did not bode well when the state repeatedly opposed interna...

The introduction on the elections can be found here . According to most forecasts, incumbent Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu's alliance won the parliamentary elections, and its leader duly claimed (a humbling) victory. But, as almost no one predicted, the process leading to the formation of a new government has not been as smooth as he would have liked, for the second place was surprisingly awarded to a complete newcomer, Yair Lapid, and his party Yesh Atid ("There is a future"). Naftali Bennett's "Jewish House Party" also did well, although not as well as expected. Moreover, both centrist and leftist parties made significant gains. Meanwhile, far-right parties did not fare as well as polls had indicated. The outcome also showed a new generation is being given shape to, for young voters voted for new candidates that repeatedly publicly denounced their being tired of the never-changing "old regime" of Netanyahu, Lieberman, Barak and the like...

Israel will hold elections today, 22 January 2013, and the country has been preparing for it over the last weeks (some maliciously mutter the 8 day war with Gaza was just a campaign act for the incumbent Government), after an early vote was called, mainly because of an increased worrying budget deficit and the consequent inability to push through delicate budget cuts in the style of the ones that two years ago triggered what some called an " Israeli Spring ". Public opinion surveys indicate that PM Benyamin Netanyahu's center-right Likud Party, running in a join list (scarily dubbed "Biberman" or the right wing Big Bang) with a secularist ultra nationalist party called Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel, our home") headed by the controversial former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, are likely to win enough votes to form a new Government, but opinion polls have also shown recently that the creation of such an extremist block may however scare off voters...

I had saved this article because the headline had very much caught my attention. Apparently, in a controversial recent meeting between Netanyahu and the King of Jordan, both leaders mentioned the possibility of building a confederation between the West Bank and Jordan, that would find its origins in the British-dominated protectorate of Transjordan created in 1921, after WWI. That would be one of the main talking points in future peace negotiations and "would leave the core disputes on permanent borders, Jerusalem, the Palestinian refugees and the future of Israel’s settlements in Judea and Samaria to a later round of negotiations at some unspecified time in the future" (evidently!). This way, Israel won't feel obliged to recognise the existence of a Palestinian state (even though the Palestinian Authority already vowed to recognise the Jewish state) and Hamas won't have to recognise the state of Israel. According to the article, "in early December, the Palest...