Discovering MENA and other thoughts

Tracking the events in Iraq - in the whole region, actually - might be a colossal task. Particularly so during the Summer, when it is sometimes even difficult to grasp a single headline. We all are aware about something called ISIS - or IS, as of lately - that seems to be messing around from Lebanon to Iran. A group of bearded man that scares everybody, the only ones able to force Obama to reconsider his mantra of non-intervention and to make Assad look like a harmless puppy. We've read about them, we've seen tons of maps showing their advance, we've heard rumours and conjectures. In case you've missed half of it, there go a few basic things you need to know about them. And yes, they are creepy!

The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the one and only body considered as representative of the Syrian opposition by the international community (despite its lacklustre state and its problems with the rebels on the ground, many of them having refused to recognise its authority and rejecting the idea of negotiations) has agreed to participate in peace talks with the regime that will take place in Geneva, what pundits like to call "Geneva 2 talks". The helter-skelter body has however outlined certain conditions for its attendance that will need to prove the Syrian regime's goodwill and predisposition, particularly a guarantee that relief agencies would be given access to deliver humanitarian assistance and that political prisoners would be released. In this sense, many considered as a very good omen a deal whereby a blockade on the rebel-held town of Qudsaya, near Damascus, will be eased.

While  two weeks ago  Western intervention in Syria seemed imminent , today it merely stands as the second track  after the  diplomatic option both the US, Russia and Syria have embraced . This situation has lead many, including me, to draw parallels that somehow justify or refute the usefulness of an attack on the Syrian regime, the most likely comparisons being drawn with Iraq, Libya and Kosovo.  I hereby point out the major differences that make such comparisons unfeasible and even dangerous. 

You know I'm not the pessimistic kind of person, but the opposite. Nonetheless, every time I take a glance at what is happening in Syria, I am increasingly disheartened. For months the conflict has been dragging on, with hundreds killed each day and thousands fleeing towards neighboring countries (or worse still, returning to Syria out of desperation at the sight of the outrageous conditions the gigantic refugee camps put them in). Let's not forget about the xenophobic feeling towards Syrians citizens that is mounting throughout the region, particularly in Lebanon and Jordan, tiny countries truly incapable of giving shelter and providing staples to the ravaged families that get to their countries. Xenophobia out of sectarian hatred, xenophobia out of fear of spillover, xenophobic out of anger at what they consider is putting stability of the whole region under threat. People talk about a lost generation in Europe. Try figuring the future of a generation whose children cannot g...

Anyone out there unaware of Assad's latest mischief? Really? Well, on the occasion of Syria's  Independence Day , the country's stiff President gave an interview to the Syrian official television channel Al-Ikhbariya. The interview coincided with the country's Independence Day, and at one point of the ranting he linked his departure to a "decision of the people". Was he maybe suggesting there might be a presidential election, in which he will beyond doubt be the front runner, in 2014? He then paradoxically added that his post is of no value without the support of the people. Which people exactly?  Assad's speech was full with pearls of wisdom, notably the one about the West being trying to colonize his country and thus playing with fire as a result of its funding Al-Qaeda operations. He somewhat threatened the West saying it will pay dearly one day or the other, for this organization would turn against them in the future,  striking "in the hear...

Even though small governing bodies have been set up in rebel-held areas, the Syrian opposition on the ground is trying to put into place a province-wide authority controlled by civilian, and not military, authorities, and has announced the creation of a 29-elected members provincial council in the battered city of Aleppo. This move has been hailed as an optimistic first step towards the laying of the foundations for a future Syrian state that will rise to power once Assad is overthrown. It is however unclear how these representative bodies will interact with the Syrian opposition in exile, which has been already recognised as a "government-in-waiting".

In what many consider the most serious spillover of the Syrian conflict into a neighbouring country (others grant that honour to the car explosion that took place in Beirut last year ), approximately 40 Syrian soldiers who were escaping from rebel attacks and crossed the border with Iraq and were accompanied by Iraqi soldiers were killed by unidentified gunmen (some blame Al-Qaeda, there's no evidence to that) in the Iraqi province of Anbar (a Western territory with, coincidentally, a Sunni majority and also epicenter of the recent unrest ). Even though the authorities claim they've not picked sides, Prime Minister's Maliki's covert support of Assad's regime has been denounced by several observers. You simply cannot back a dictator who has already massacred more than 70,000 people, wounded much more and chased away hundreds of thousands, even if you act out of strategic reckoning, and expect your population to stay quiet.

Death toll approaching 40,000 (plus those wounded, arrested, psychologically injured... and approximately 2.5 million refugees (both internally and abroad)!)... Struggle approaching its 20th month... Winter approaching in destroyed towns and refugee camps throughout the region... Update on the new opposition here   The situation thus remains extremely dire and worrying from all points of view. Heavy fighting continues and shows no sign of abating. Neither side seems capable of putting an end to the conflict. And civilians are the ones who mainly bear the brunt: the civil war is resulting in a notable disintegration of a Syrian society which was once hailed as a model for the rest of Arab countries, principally characterized by its inclusiveness and an exemplary secular core. Citing an alarming deterioration of the security situation on the ground (though I find it hard to believe things can get even worse), the UN OCHA has announced the withdrawal of all its remaining non-essential st...

It seems both fronts in Syria's civil war have agreed to respect a ceasefire brokered by UN and LAS special envoy. However, jihadist groups have not. And that adds to warnings by both the Syrian army and the rebels, who have nonetheless affirmed that they will strike back if they are attacked or even feel threatened in that respect. Previous truces have been ignored, and have even been witnesses to a surge in the number of deaths. Will this time be different? It seems it won't: the ceasefire is already in tatters, as within hours of the announcement, clashes have resumed, leaving behind several people killed, and various demonstrations have broken out across the country.