Discovering MENA and other thoughts

The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), the one and only body considered as representative of the Syrian opposition by the international community (despite its lacklustre state and its problems with the rebels on the ground, many of them having refused to recognise its authority and rejecting the idea of negotiations) has agreed to participate in peace talks with the regime that will take place in Geneva, what pundits like to call "Geneva 2 talks". The helter-skelter body has however outlined certain conditions for its attendance that will need to prove the Syrian regime's goodwill and predisposition, particularly a guarantee that relief agencies would be given access to deliver humanitarian assistance and that political prisoners would be released. In this sense, many considered as a very good omen a deal whereby a blockade on the rebel-held town of Qudsaya, near Damascus, will be eased.

It seems Syria, entering the third year of what many consider an all-out war that has taken the lives of more than 70,000 people, may have found a way to get out of the stalemate the country has been plunged into for months. That is, of course, if the main stakeholders in the conflict deign to relent and to do what's actually best for the state and its desperate population, the one who have been bearing the hugest brunt, as well as for its neighbors, most of them on the brink of deeper civil infighting. While in Moscow, where talks with his staunchest ally (aka Russia)'s counterpart were scheduled, and also while scud missiles were reportedly launched in Aleppo, the country's Foreign Minister has declared its Government is ready for talks with whoever wants to, talks in which the armed rebels (he literally mentioned "those who have weapons in their hands) would be authorized to participate in, thus relinquishing one of the regime's main preconditions. Even th...

Last week, Damascus saw what some consider the heaviest infighting in the city since the uprising broke out almost two years ago. The conflict is further escalating leading to a worst-case scenario, and many believe that makes it harder to envision a positive end. There are three possible outcomes, and none of them seems optimistic enough: either the regime wins, either the rebels root the latter, either the civil war goes on following a Lebanon-type pattern. An eventual end to the current stalemate would undoubtedly require external intervention, insofar as all countries involved agreed to a plausible unified blueprint, preferably following the Geneva steps.  Some saw a glimpse of light when Mr Moaz Al-Khatib, leader of the unified opposition, put forward a proposal whereby the body he represents would be ready to negotiate with the untainted elements (or at least the ones whose hands are not stained by blood) of Assad's regime, particularly with the country's Vice-Pres...

Death toll approaching 40,000 (plus those wounded, arrested, psychologically injured... and approximately 2.5 million refugees (both internally and abroad)!)... Struggle approaching its 20th month... Winter approaching in destroyed towns and refugee camps throughout the region... Update on the new opposition here   The situation thus remains extremely dire and worrying from all points of view. Heavy fighting continues and shows no sign of abating. Neither side seems capable of putting an end to the conflict. And civilians are the ones who mainly bear the brunt: the civil war is resulting in a notable disintegration of a Syrian society which was once hailed as a model for the rest of Arab countries, principally characterized by its inclusiveness and an exemplary secular core. Citing an alarming deterioration of the security situation on the ground (though I find it hard to believe things can get even worse), the UN OCHA has announced the withdrawal of all its remaining non-essential st...

It seems the new Syrian coalition is having a huge success and is making strides in what has already been called the "Doha Process". The UK has been the ninth country to grant the group full recognition, together with the Gulf States, Turkey, France and Italy. Other international actors have stopped short of recognising the group as a Government in-waiting or the sole representative of the Syrian opposition: that has been the stance chosen by both the EU and the United States. Qatar, France and the UK have even asked the opposition to appoint an ambassador to the country, a perfect first step towards an enhanced representation throughout the world. Why some authorities have doubts when it comes to give the final push to the body? First of all, probably because it is still too soon: recognition comes hand in hand with responsibilities, and the group hasn't still achieved anything near of coordinated military action. The new authorities have been accused of being to...

One of the differences between Libya and Syria cited by many pundits (and often justifying the non intervention of foreign forces in the country) is the absence of a unified opposition that could eventually be in charge of spearheading the difficult transition process after Assad's overthrow. At the outset, this responsibility fell into the hands of the Syrian National Council (SNC) members. The body, nonetheless, started receiving more and more criticism, leading to an increasingly divided opposition (as I already pointed out here ) and to a palpable disenchantment within all its Western and Arab partners, falling " from darling to outcast " and no longer being considered a legitimate representative of the Syrian opposition, as US Secretary of State Clinton recently stressed (" The SNC cannot anymore be considered as the leader of the opposition"). According to Al-Monitor , this failure is also Turkey's failure, for the latter has repeatedly tried ...

Most important data: death toll dangerously approaching an outrageous number: 35,000 (mostly civilians, and too many innocent children amongst them) since the outset of the uprising in March 2011, with countless injured and more than 25,000 detained. Moreover, more than 260,000 Syrians have fled to neighbouring countries (moreover,  the number of internally displaced persons is now estimated at 1.2 million)  and approximately 2.5 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, according to official UN sources. As I said in my last entry (paraphrasing the admirable Sartre), our hands (all of us') are dirty. On 24 September,  Lakhdar Brahimi , Joint United Nations and League of Arab States' Envoy for Syria, briefed the United Nations Security Council on his recent visit to the region (Syria, neighbouring countries and Cairo), announcing the situation is still "very grim", but nonetheless showed an optimistic stance, and even foresaw a ...

Weeks after the outset of the uprising, on August 2011, a new coalition named Syrian National Council (SNC) ( SNC´s web ) emerged as the single and main representative of the Syrian Opposition, following the Libyan example of the National Transitional Council (NTC), a group that gained international recognition as the legitimate governing authority in Libya and acted as such during and after the 2011 Libyan civil war, before handing power to an elected assembly on 8 August (actually, the Council was recognized by the NTC in Libya as the sole legitimate government of Syria). According to Wikipedia , the SNC was in principle a coalition of Syrian opposition groups (in principle: exiled Syrian wing of the   Muslim Brotherhood, Damascus Declaration, the   Assyrian Democratic Organization, the National Democratic Rally, the Local Coordination Committees of Syria, the Supreme Council of the Syrian Revolution, the Syrian Revolution General Commission, the Fr...

So everyone speaking about the Syrian conflict knows the country is heading towards a full blown-out civil war (some consider it is already the case) waged by the Syrian regular Army (mainly controlled by Assad's Alawites closest allies) and its thuggish militia, the shabiba, against the rebels, most of them organized under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). According to our beloved Wikipedia, "the Free Syrian Army is the main armed opposition group operating in Syria" [...] "composed of defected Syrian Armed Forces personnel and volunteers" [...] "its formation was announced on 29 July 2011 in a video released on the Internet by a uniformed group of deserters from the Syrian military who called upon members of the Syrian army to defect and join them". First of all, the FSA is composed of civilians who took up arms. The peaceful demonstrations, following the example of their Arab brothers in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, st...